A few days ago I was on a phone call with a young gentleman discussing where we felt the job market was going for project managers, and for managers in general. We spoke about how artificial intelligence (AI) was being applied to automate many aspects of the work that white-collar professionals perform. We shared our mutual belief that the ongoing automation of repetitive tasks would thus free managers to focus on leadership and people-oriented tasks, on being people managers. Emotional intelligence (EI), rather than just technical skills, would keep them in jobs.
The challenge is that tasks requiring technical knowledge, particularly repetitive tasks, are being targeted for AI automation. Even highly-paid technical people, in particular software developers and data professionals, are seeing much of their work is being automated away by AI. They too need to identify people-oriented work where they could add value, otherwise they are in trouble. We thus concluded that people managers were likely to do well given that AI isn’t (yet) being targeted at the type of work they do. Then it struck me that this conclusion is very flawed.
AI Augments White Collar Workers, Reducing the Need for People
The common mantra is that it won’t be AI that takes your job, instead it will be someone using AI that takes it. People using AI as part of how they do their work is called “AI augmentation”, and there is a subtle threat here. AI augmentation reduces the amount of work that needs to be done, thereby requiring fewer people to do the remaining work. For example, what used to require twenty people now only requires eighteen after a new AI system is deployed. Another round of AI augmentation reduces the staffing requirements to fifteen, and so on.
The threat isn’t that AI will completely replace someone, but instead replace some of what they do. Yes, your organization could decide to invest in their people and retrain them, providing them with more fulfilling work. Or they could decide to lay off some people as a cost cutting measure. Not everyone is going to make it into the life boat.
Fewer People Implies Less Need for People Managers
To be clear, tasks that are technical in nature, particularly those that are repetitive, are being automated via AI technologies. As some aspects of white collar work, including but not limited to management work, are automated away fewer people are required to perform the remaining work. Guess what? When there are fewer people you require fewer people managers.
Conclusion: People Managers Are Safer, But Not Safe
In The Zombie Survival Guide Max Brooks claims that when it comes to zombies that no place is safe, only safer. Similarly, when it comes to AI no role is safe, only safer. So yes, white collar workers in people-oriented roles are safer than those in other types of roles, but they’re still not safe. This includes people managers.
I hope you found this short blog insightful. If so, please check out my other artificial intelligence (AI) writings.